It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Your email address will not be published. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. bellwether. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. I think he is more for giving to the people.. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. I think we needed somebody like him.. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Its crazy. But thats not the picture I look at. To accept cookies, click continue. They need to take care of the older people here. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Blaine County. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Two states have announced recounts. Jim Hoft. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The morale of the people up there is bad. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. He considers Trump pro-life. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. "If. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. I kind of keep in my bubble. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Theyre scared. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Youre not getting anybody perfect. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Your email address will not be published. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. People need to get a job, get out and work. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. I quit voting once out of the union.. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. We believe that there are two main reasons. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. That is, until this year. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. Here's why. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. SACRAMENTO . Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. I am under that impression. Theres too much corruption. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. This is a high farming community.. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. Its horrible. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. This includes personalizing content and advertising. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. They run the gamut from. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. I would never vote any other way. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. This includes personalizing content and advertising. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Its just stupid, she said. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Im not happy with the way things are now. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive.
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