These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Really stop reading. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. There are 391 such counties. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Here's why. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. 11. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. First, what are bellwether counties? ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Dont simply gloss over this. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. TIP: In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. 5. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". But that's no longer the case. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. This county voted with the popular vote each time. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Still, the state's worth watching. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. 4. Not a bad streak. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Voter Demographics (9). History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. It almost became religious.". 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. That's 14 in a row. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. (Sorry, not sorry.) So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Yes, another Hillsborough! If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Election night is going to be information overload. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Trump gave them hope. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. They simply vote on merit. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. In 2020, a single. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. 2016 Election (1135) Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Demographics (84) To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. The divisions were everywhere. Nobody forgot about politics.". Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Until this year. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Jeff. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Watauga has gone for. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president.
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